Economic Survey 2025-26: GDP Growth Seen at 6.8-7.2% as Manufacturing, Exports and Welfare Gains Strengthen Economy

New Delhi: As Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman prepares to present the Union Budget for FY 2026-27 on 1 February, the Economic Survey 2025-26 was presented by Chief Economic Adviser Dr V. Anantha Nageswaran and laid in both the Lok Sabha and the Rajya Sabha by the finance minister.

The Survey projected India’s real GDP growth for FY 2026-27 in the range of 6.8 to 7.2 per cent, with potential growth estimated at around 7 per cent. As per the first advance estimates, real GDP and GVA growth for FY26 are projected at 7.4 per cent and 7.3 per cent, respectively.

A central theme of the Survey is “disciplined Swadeshi” aimed at strengthening strategic resilience through a calibrated three-tier strategy that focuses on building critical capabilities, reducing input costs, strengthening advanced manufacturing and transitioning from self-reliance to strategic indispensability.

Key Economic and Fiscal Indicators

Centre’s revenue receipts rose to 9.2 per cent of GDP in FY25 (provisional actuals)
Domestic inflation averaged 1.7 per cent during April–December 2025
Gross NPAs declined to a multi-decadal low of 2.2 per cent as of September 2025

Welfare, Inclusion and Social Outcomes

2.27 crore property cards issued under the Svamitva scheme
42.78 crore Ayushman Bharat cards distributed
2.9 crore houses constructed
14.32 crore beneficiaries registered on the U-Win portal
Over Rs 4.09 lakh crore released to farmers under PM-Kisan

Financial Inclusion and Capital Markets

55.02 crore PMJDY bank accounts opened as of March 2025
36.63 crore in rural and semi-urban areas
The number of unique investors crossed 12 crore in 2025, with 25 per cent women’s participation

External Sector and Macroeconomic Strength

India’s share of global merchandise exports rose from 1 per cent (2005) to 1.8 per cent (2024)
Services exports hit an all-time high of $387.6 billion in FY25, growing 13.6 per cent
Remittance inflows reached $135.4 billion in FY25, the highest globally
Forex reserves stood at $701.4 billion as of 11 January 2026, covering 11 months of imports and 94 per cent of external debt

Manufacturing, Infrastructure and Industrial Policy

Manufacturing GVA grew 7.72 per cent in Q1 and 9.13 per cent in Q2 of FY26
PLI schemes across 14 sectors have attracted over Rs 2 lakh crore in annual investment, generated incremental production/sales exceeding rs 18.7 lakh croe and created over 12.6 lakh jobs as of September 2025
High-speed corridors expanded from 550 km in FY14 to 5,364 km by FY26
Around 3,500 km of railway lines were added in FY26
Power discoms recorded a historic turnaround with a positive PAT of Rs 2,701 crore in FY25

Education, Employment and Labour Reforms

India now has 23 IITs, 21 IIMs, and 20 AIIMS, as well as two international IIT campuses in Zanzibar and Abu Dhabi
31 crore unorganised workers registered on the e-Shram portal, with 54 per cent women
Proposed Viksit Bharat–GramG aims at a statutory overhaul of MGNREGS aligned with the Viksit Bharat 2047 vision

Implementation Review Across States

23 priority areas assessed across 36 States/UTs (828 total actions) — 630 (76 per cent) implemented, 79 (10 per cent) under implementation119 (14 per cent) not implemented or not applicable

Reforms and Policy achievements

Simplification of the Income Tax Act
GST 2.0 and higher direct tax exemptions
Rural employment reforms: Viksit Bharat Guarantee for Rozgar and Ajeevika Mission (Gramin) Act, 2025.
Four Labour Codes notified.
MoRTH shifts from cost-based bidding to technical-score-base system
District Business Reforms Action Plan
Recent trade and investment deals with international counterparts
FDI in insurance and Nuclear power

Emerging Challenges

Rising demand for skilled workers in: Eldercare and nursing, culinary arts and baking, advanced tool and die manufacturing, public health outreach, early and special needs education, and environmental restoration.

Lastly the survey also highlighted that India is among the fastest-growing markets for ultra-processed foods: Retail sales rose from $0.9 billion (2005–06) to $38 billion (2019) and obesity rates among men and women nearly doubled during the same period