New Delhi: India’s population is expected to hit 1.46 billion in 2025, maintaining its position as the most populous country in the world, according to the United Nations Population Fund’s (UNFPA) 2025 State of World Population (SOWP) report titled The Real Fertility Crisis.
While the country continues to see overall growth in numbers, the report highlights a crucial demographic shift; India’s total fertility rate has declined to 1.9 births per woman, falling below the replacement level of 2.1.
The report underscores that the real concern is not overpopulation or underpopulation, but rather the gap between people’s reproductive aspirations and their ability to fulfil them.
“Millions of people are unable to realise their fertility goals; this is the real crisis,” the report states, calling for increased support for reproductive autonomy, informed choice in family planning, and access to contraception.
India’s demographic profile continues to evolve rapidly. While the country now houses nearly 1.5 billion people, this number is projected to peak at around 1.7 billion in the next four decades before beginning to decline. In terms of population structure, a significant proportion remains young; 24 per cent are aged 0 to 14, and 26 per cent fall within the 10 to 24 age bracket.
With 68 per cent of the population in the working-age group (15 to 64), India could benefit from a demographic dividend, provided there is adequate investment in employment, education, and health.
The ageing population is also on the rise, with 7% currently aged 65 and above, a figure that is expected to grow as life expectancy increases to 71 years for men and 74 for women in 2025.
From a historical perspective, India’s fertility landscape has dramatically changed. In 1960, women had an average of nearly six children and access to education and contraception was limited.
Today, with better healthcare access and more educational opportunities, the average woman has about two children. Yet, the UNFPA notes that inequalities remain pronounced across regions, castes, and income groups.
UNFPA India Representative Andrea M Wojnar acknowledged India’s progress in reducing fertility rates from five in 1970 to about two today, attributing the gains to improved reproductive healthcare and education.
“This has led to major reductions in maternal mortality; millions more mothers are alive today, raising children and building communities,” she said. However, Wojnar warned that the benefits of these achievements must reach all sections of society.
“The real demographic dividend comes when everyone has the freedom and means to make informed reproductive choices,” she added.
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