New Delhi: India is on track to reach its 2030 target of having 50% of its electricity capacity generated from non-fossil sources well ahead of the end of the decade, according to the IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2023.
This achievement is dependent on the full utilisation of the new solar PV module manufacturing capacity established under the Production-Linked Incentives (PLI) program by 2026. If this capacity comes online as expected, India’s solar energy capacity will surpass the required levels for the coming decade.
The IEA, nevertheless, anticipates that India may continue to import solar PV modules for a few more years, as developers will opt for the most cost-effective panels available. However, the trend is expected to shift as domestic production increases, positioning India as a reliable exporter in the global solar market.
India, historically a net importer of fossil fuels, is now transitioning into an importer of clean energy technologies, particularly as it expands its solar and wind power generation capabilities. “Eighteen per cent of the electricity generated in India will be from solar sources by 2030, up from six per cent today,” the report said.
India’s solar PV module imports were valued at $3.4 billion in 2021-2022. To promote the clean energy sector, the Indian government initiated the PLI program in 2020 to attract investments in crucial areas such as solar PV modules and advanced chemistry cell battery manufacturing.
The IEA report also highlights India’s surging energy consumption, with a 21% rise in electricity usage between 2019 and 2022, driven in part by the need for space cooling. Currently, nearly 10% of electricity demand in India is attributed to cooling requirements.
Over the past five decades, India has experienced over 700 heatwave events, resulting in more than 17,000 casualties. With increasing incomes, air conditioner ownership in India has tripled since 2010, reaching 24 units per 100 households, according to IEA data.
The report notes, “The impact of cooling needs on electricity consumption is already clear. Electricity demand is sensitive to temperatures, and in India’s case, there is a sharp increase in demand as temperatures cross the 25°C threshold.”
By 2050, household air conditioner ownership is projected to increase ninefold, outpacing the growth in ownership of other major household appliances like televisions, refrigerators, and washing machines. The report says, “By 2050, India’s total electricity demand from residential air conditioners in the STEPS exceeds total electricity consumption in the whole of Africa today.”
IEA’s World Energy Outlook also predicts a substantial increase in the number of electric cars on the road and a significant growth of renewable energy sources, but it emphasises the necessity of stronger policies to achieve the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C.
After a continued period of high demand over the past decade, global coal consumption is expected to decline in the coming years. The share of coal-fired power in new global capacity additions reached its peak in 2006 at 45% and has steadily fallen to 11% in 2022, as indicated by IEA data. Changes in iron and steel production have also contributed to the decrease in coal demand.
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