New Delhi: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) is set to adopt the Bharat Forecast System (BFS), India’s highest-resolution weather forecasting model, starting this monsoon season.
The model will be formally handed over to IMD at a ceremony in New Delhi, marking a significant advancement in India’s meteorological capabilities.
Developed by the Pune-based Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), the BFS offers a spatial resolution of 6 km x 6 km, making it the most precise operational model currently available in the country. Researchers at IITM are also working on further improving the resolution to 3 km and even 1 km, which would enable hyper-local weather forecasting.
A Leap from Existing Forecast Systems
Currently, IMD uses the Coupled Forecasting System (CFS) and the Global Forecasting System (GFS). The CFS, originally developed by the U.S.-based National Centre for Environmental Prediction and later adapted for Indian conditions, is used under the Monsoon Mission Project. The GFS, another coupled model, provides forecasts across multiple time scales—from hours to an entire season.
However, both these models have a resolution of 12 km x 12 km, which treats each 144 sq km area as a single unit for forecasting. This limits the model’s ability to detect localised weather events such as flash floods or isolated heavy rainfall.
Sharper Forecasts for Monsoon & Extreme Weather Conditions
With the BFS’s finer 6 km resolution, forecasters will now be able to generate more accurate predictions, especially for extreme weather events like heavy rainfall and cyclones.
IMD officials have stated that the Bharat Forecast System is expected to greatly enhance India’s weather forecasting accuracy. The new model will support better disaster preparedness and help authorities issue more targeted alerts, especially crucial during the monsoon season.
